Odds enhancers forex market
I find that most people don't quantify this with numbers. Quantifying exactly what "demand" or supply is to you and your plan is a key component to a trading plan that has an edge over other trading plans that don't. We have a number of "odds enhancers" at Online Trading Academy which are key to quantifying and identifying real demand and supply.
To explain this further and dive into the details of one of the most important odds enhancers, let's look at a trade I took recently and shared with XLT students during our sessions. Article Continues on Page 2 pagebreak The chart above is a daily chart of the euro. In the upper left portion of the chart, I identified an XLT supply level. As you can see, it is clearly a rally, base, drop, and the base is in between the two black demand lines which create our supply zone.
One of the most important questions that comes next is whether or not there is a significant "profit margin" associated with this demand level, and this is the key odds enhancer most overlook. Click to Enlarge The presence of a significant profit margin is key for two reasons. The first is that it quantifies the risk and reward. Second, the larger the profit margin, the higher the probability. This is because a big profit margin means price is far from equilibrium and out at price levels where the demand and supply imbalances are greatest.
The distance between the two black lines is the distance from our entry point to our protective stop loss price. We sell short at the bottom black supply line and place our stop just above the upper black demand line. This measures our risk. The distance between our supply and demand represents our potential profit margin. Notice the strong rally in the form of big green candles that takes price up to supply for our short entry.
That rally "opens up" a profit margin for us, as we are willing sellers when price revisits that level, which it did, offering us our short entry. Meaning, if the distance from entry to stop is two points in a market, the initial rally from that level has to be at least six points or it does not qualify as a demand level for us.
I will ignore any demand levels that don't meet this minimum requirement. Just reverse this for supply. While I require as a minimum requirement for the supply level to actually meet the definition of a supply level, it may be different for you.
You may require or something else. In this example, the length of the initial decline from supply was much more than three times the distance from entry to stop, and that's good, but we only needed the What this suggested was the probability of price hitting our profit target was very likely. Basically, anything that would trap breakout traders and make them suffer, is when we start looking closely. These are a great tool to find waning momentum and capitalize on it.
To read about triple taps in-depth, visit this link. Triangles Whenever I spot one, I stay far, far, far away from that market. These are horrible to trade and do not give us clear swing points. They are for breakout traders and have a very low win rate, absolutely not suitable for our trading. This is especially true for symmetrical triangles.
Keep it simple. Now there are some other tools I use as well for deciding whether or not to enter a trade. I know traders that trade only these and make good money. I have always found them to be very ambiguous, and never got very warm with them. But when I see an obvious one, I will paint it into my chart. Also, I see these more as zones than as levels. But they are not a must-have. We have to zoom out a bit to see them properly.
Zooming out most of the time brings me more confusion than clarity, to be honest. I need more. I need patterns. As you can see in the picture below, on the pin bar to the left, there was confluence with a major trendline. On the right, we have an engulfing outside bar played as a classic , but our point number 3 was accompanied by a macro level as well. Basically, what you have to look for is a strong move away from a certain point and whenever price gets back to that point and we get a price action signal, that is one hell of a trade.
On the picture below, you can see that on the left arrow, price broke away brutally from this level. Once we came back, we got a bearish outside bar, signaling that there were still orders left there for another significant rejection to the downside. Inner Trendlines Trendlines are all over our charts. Every pattern, every price movement, they can all be explained by peripheral and inner trendlines.
But they can be very, very confusing, as well, for the same reason — as they can literally be drawn everywhere. I suggest you look for these only after you have drawn all the other patterns on your chart, and see whether they add any confluence to your trade. Especially the third tap of a trendline in confluence with a level and a pin bar, for example, can create a lot of magic. Of course, triple taps and channels, triangles, and so on, all rely on trendlines, as well.
Generally, I like to trade retests of trendlines much more than tests, as the retest plus price action signal gives us confirmation that the rest of the world is looking at this trendline, as well. I do not use them for entries but rather for getting a quick picture of the overall situation. Easy game.
You look for the story the market is trying to tell you and if it sounds good, you make your move. Do you need an extra invitation to trade that? Next one. And here the daily picture: Massive divergence inside a downward channel, then we hit a level, and at the same time touched our trendline for the third time, we then created a very pretty pin bar, and traded back up to the channel top.
On the daily time frame, we were also in a downwards channel, so I risked only half my position size on this trade, as I do with almost all counter-trend trades. Well, at least you know what I look at when I see a potential trade in order to evaluate whether it is worth my time and money.
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