Football form guide for betting websites
Not necessarily though if the goalkeeper is making a few howlers and the team defensively are struggling to keep the opposition out. So, we may assess Lazio as a solid choice to win this match based purely on their current form. Although fairly prohibitive odds at 1. Would we still view them as a solid pick at 1.
A team may have terrific current form, but what if one or two key players are out through injury or suspension? We may still conclude Lazio are the most likely winners but a seed of doubt has been sown into our minds which leads to more decision making. This is just one scenario emphasising consideration should be given to other factors that may impact on how we assess football form. Choosing the right stats to look at makes things easier. Football form stats can be utilised to assess team performance over a designated period and the whole season.
We will begin by analysing a current form table before exploring other ways of utilising football form stats which are freely available and an invaluable betting resource towards our ultimate aim in making winning football predictions. How To Use A Current Form Table Games is Usually Deemed 'Current' in Football Form Whether taking just league games or all competitions into account, the range of 6 to 8 matches, gives a good guide to recent form A Current Form table displays the win, draw, loss, goals scored, goals against and points accrued record over a recent period for football teams in a league.
By analysing the football teams stats and points won a comparison can be made on who have performed better than others during this period. Generally a six or eight match form table provides bettors with a nice data sample size to analyse recent matches covering the last six weeks or so and assess who are the in form football teams. The eight match form table is likely to provide a nice spread of say four home and four away matches for teams over the recent period allowing form students to compare any bias.
Developing an understanding of which ones to trust and rely on to gauge upcoming matchups is an good starting point for new bettors. This also provides a good opportunity to compare multiple sources of information and build your own intuition based on which source is strong or weak.
More advanced power ratings produced by ELO , Massey , Colley , or Markov provide a single number that best describes team strength comparisons. Some of the approaches even allow the incorporation of Handicaps and Totals to build market-implied power ratings that reverse-engineer a sportsbook's line. An example of this can be found below with the number next to the team name being what the market expectation is for the team against an average team on a neutral field.
Based on these power ratings, Tampa Bay has a 4. With Dallas at 1. Constructing these power rankings allows a bettor to compare what the market expectation should be on a neutral field versus what it actually is. Doing this for every game is a way to find value on some Handicap markets which are off kilter with the current market expectation.
This is also a great way to find value if home-field advantage is over or understated in certain matchups. Once accurate power ratings are obtained, the next step is to understand the outside influences that may be driving discrepancies between the power ratings and current betting market numbers. Therefore, from a statistical point of view, the data from successive seasons for such factors as home-field advantage HFA is robust. Sometimes when the handicap produced from our power ratings is off from the current betting market offering it can sometimes be because of too-aggressive pricing based on a perceived HFA.
This has started to create opportunities for road teams performing above expectation at the NFL level. In , home-field advantage worked out to a little over. Bookmakers have adjusted slightly and seem to be baking in a negligible amount of HFA of. Depending on your personal beliefs on the impact of HFA, this creates an opportunity to either buy into or fade teams playing at home.
It also creates opportunities for certain teams that may be impacted by HFA more than others. By understanding what the key numbers are, you can avoid betting on a bad Handicap market and can even work out which team the bookmaker wants you to bet on. Similarly to the Run Line in baseball betting , most games in the NFL are decided by specific margins.
Three is the most common margin of victory in the NFL as most games are decided late on by a field goal three points , while seven is the second most common winning margin, as this is how many points a team is awarded for a touchdown plus an extra point for a successful conversion. This means that Sharp bettors will often wait for the handicap figure to fall to around this mark before placing the bet they want to make.
Other bet types After newer bettors become accustomed to betting Handicap, Money Line, and Total markets, the next evolution typically involves betting on Multiples and Teasers. These bet forms can offer unique opportunities, but an initial understanding of how they work and how to approach them is needed if you hope to enjoy sports betting as a potential profitable hobby.
What is a Multiple Multiples are the lottery tickets of sports betting. They are the only way to turn a small amount of money risked into an outsized return. Multiples often get a bad rap, as these bets always build in an extremely high hold percentage for bookmakers. This leads to the most straightforward recommendation for new or novice bettors to stay away and stick only to straight bets. The complicated math requirements increase the opportunity for bookmakers to finish in the black.
And we have seen this play out in state reports for sports betting, as Multiple bets consistently perform as the highest percentage of revenue generator compared to hold for sportsbooks. However, simply avoiding these types of bets all together leaves opportunities on the table.
Multiples A Multiple combines several bets into one. It does this by rolling over the winnings from each individual bet into the next leg of the bet. Each leg or individual bet in the Multiple must win for the Multiple to be graded as a winner. The Buccaneers were listed as the 7. All sides on these two bets have a price of 1.
The other option is to transform both of these bets into a Multiple. This sets up a framework where we know the exact payout on 1. The immediate takeaway is that the actual odds are higher in every circumstance than the sportsbooks payout.
This is the vig factored in and where bookmakers earn their profit. Starting with Washington at 2. Now take that and calculate what a winning bet on the Jaguars at 1. Take your new total and figure out what you would win on the final bet, which is the Seahawks at 1.
Typically rolling over bets instead of placing a Multiple offers a higher payout, but the problem is you cannot do this with multiple games that start at the same time. If the legs you identify all start at different times, then in almost every situation it is better to roll over your Single bets.
If one leg wins then the chances increase that the second leg will also win. The secret is to increase the chances of the second leg winning if the first leg ends with a favorable outcome. In 1, of those games, there has been a closing spread with a favourite of a touchdown or greater.
An often discussed idea is if a big underdog covers, the game typically falls short of the Total.
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While there are national leagues for all kinds of sports, no other sport boasts a widely followed league in almost every country. As any football betting strategy guide will tell you, the more leagues you can bet on, the greater your chances of finding one that interests you. Second, football is played throughout the year. If the Spanish league you follow is on break, its Brazilian counterpart is sure to be up and running. The stake refers to the money you place on a single bet.
Match bet: This is the most basic and common form of football betting. If you were betting on Juventus versus Milan, for example, betting on 1 would mean you think the first team, Juventus, will win. Betting on X is a prediction that the match will be a draw, while choosing 2 means predicting that Milan will win the match. Accordingly, your returns depend only on the outcome of that single match. Many a guide to football sports betting recommends single bets if you want to minimise risk while betting.
Single bets tend to be regarded as the safest option, as they have higher winning percentages than accumulator bets. Accumulator acca bet: These wagers represent a combination of four or more matches, or selections. Unlike single bets, where you win or lose based on the outcome of a single match, acca bets yield a return only when all your predictions turn out to be correct.
Single bets are regarded as fairly safe but not particularly profitable in almost every betting guide on football. Accumulator bets are much riskier, but also have the potential to provide much bigger winnings. Handicap: This is another extremely popular type of bet. Handicaps can spice up even the dullest match by giving a hypothetical goal disadvantage to one of the teams.
If we take the example of Juventus versus Milan, a -1 handicap on Juventus would mean that team would be starting the match with a hypothetical one-goal disadvantage. In order for your bet to be successful, Juventus would have to win by one goal more than the handicap or a greater margin. Every online football betting guide will tell you that handicaps are a great way of making matches with a clear favourite more interesting and profitable to bet on.
This is why regular or European handicaps are also called three-way bets. You can bet on three outcomes: a win for one team, a win for the other team, or a draw. Asian handicap: This is another well-known form of handicap betting, its name stemming from the popularity of handicap betting in Asia. As any football betting odds guide will tell you, Asian handicaps are quite advanced and can be complicated to understand.
There are two main differences between regular and Asian handicap bets. First off, the regular European handicap is a kind of three-way bet because you can bet on either team to win or you can predict a draw. Asian handicaps are two-way bets. In essence, the main purpose of an Asian handicap bet is to even out the odds between unbalanced teams. This means that Asian handicaps can be expressed as half numbers, such as 0.
A total draw, including the handicap, results in your stake being refunded. Double chance: Punters who like to play it safe love double chance bets. With DB bets, you win your wager when your team wins or the match results in a draw. With a DNB, you get your stake back if the match results in a draw. Like double chance bets, DNBs offer great security but lower odds. Total goals: Not all bets require you to predict the winner of the match.
The name explains it all: Instead of choosing a winner, you bet on the total number of goals that will be scored during the course of the match. Visit Site bet Bet is one of the biggest betting platforms in the UK and the world. The platform offers punters almost everything you can think of, including football transfer betting, which covers manager and player transfers.
Bet also has a blog news site which furnishes bettors with in-depth transfer news. This is a useful ground for fans of the specials to keep up with all the latest developments in the transfer market. You can place wagers on the future of Premier League players such as Eriksen, Martial, and Pepe, as well as players in other leagues. Visit Site sport Although many consider an online casino, the firm is well established as one of the UK's top-ranking sports betting sites. This is greatly attributed to its wide range of specials, including player transfer betting.
Depending on the time of the year, the list of transfer betting markets will either increase or decrease. The summer period particularly impresses with many options for punters to exploit. Visit Site Unibet Unibet is also another great bookmaker when you're looking to try out player and manager transfer betting. The bookmaker has a prevalent transfer market variety to which you can easily get hooked.
Their wager offers include whether transfers occur or not, free transfers, player loans, contracts and manager transfers. Unibet has a great platform, with a news section and probably the best TV coverage. As one of the most highly rated bookmakers in the UK. Visit Site Tips and Strategies for Online Transfer Betting Similar to any other sports betting market, betting on player transfer requires you to have a strategy for a chance to win anything.
Here are a few tips to help you become a pro at transfer betting. Be updated with the news This is perhaps the most important strategy for anyone betting on football transfers. Things can be quite fluid in the transfer window, which calls for extra keenness on the market. Reading all the news and rumours widely can help your course of betting on the correct outcome.
Verify info and news sources It is natural to get hold of wild things and hot air as soon as the transfer rumour mill starts spinning. Therefore, check the credibility of your sources and authenticate any transfer information you come across.
Checking the history of a publication and the reputation of your source is a good place to start. Follow up on agents Every footballer has an agent who manages their transfer affairs. An agent could be a professional firm, siblings, parents or even spouses to the players and managers. Most often, transfer rumours begin from these agents. Agents use this opportunity to hype their assets and invite interested teams to make a move — the more viral the rumour goes, the higher the player's value seems to go in many cases.
While agents may have their reasons for starting rumours, they often point to the likelihood of a player's next move. You can use this information to wager on markets, such as whether a player will move or stay at the current club. However, keep in mind that some rumours are spun around just so a player can get an improved contract with their current team — you'll need to be extra resourceful and not rely entirely on this. Watch out for the deadline day The deadline day is the precise day on which all transfers end and the transfer window closes.
Both the summer and winter transfer windows have a definite deadline day across all the major world leagues. The deadline day usually presents some pretty dramatic transfer activities. Teams that have been in the market for a long will be desperate to get a deal, and players who have been stalling a move may display a drastic change of mind.
Simply put, you never know what will happen — this day truly brings forth the meaning of it's never over until it's over. The Transfer Market If you're a staunch football fan, you may already have an idea or two about how the transfers work in the real world. For instance, when does the transfer begin and how long does the transfer period last? To address this question, let's look at the transfer window and how it works in different European leagues. Transfer Window The transfer window is the time when teams are allowed to make signings of new players and managers.
However, negotiations for these signings take off way before the window opens. In the Premier League, there are two transfer windows, one in the summer and another shorter one in the winter. The summer transfer window now opens on 1st July and closes on 1st September, while in winter, the window runs from 1st January to the 1st of February. The summer window usually witnesses the most transfer activity — expenditure on signings can be record-breaking. However, we've also seen some winter windows record a huge number of transfers.
In recent years, subsequent windows have clocked fewer transfers than previous ones, as evident in the summer window, where only players swapped clubs compared to players in Therefore, you need to be critical of the Premier League transfer window when strategising your transfer betting because it comes with a few twists and surprises. Other European League Transfer Windows Although the Premier League tops as the highest spending league in the transfer market every year, other competitive leagues also bid for players.
Since bookmakers also cover these leagues extensively, it is also important to know how the transfer window operates in these leagues.
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